lord kelvin's folly
In 1894 the president of the Royal Society - the UK's national academy of science - Lord Kelvin, confidently predicted that radio had 'no future'.
The first radio factory was opened 5 years later, and within 8 years a radio set sat in over 50% of US homes.
The time taken to reach 50% of homes is generally accepted as a reasonable way to measure this kind of impact.
Then the transistor was invented in 1947, and ushered in the era of much smaller portable radios.
American electronics companies showed little interest in developing this nascent idea of portable music so in stepped a Japanese start-up called Sony.
Sony launched the first transistor radio in 1954 – it’s possibly no coincidence that rock’n’roll and teenage culture blew up very shortly after.
The aforementioned Lord Kelvin was no stranger to grand - but spectacularly wrong - predictions.
He was also certain that nothing heavier-than-air would ever fly and that X-rays were simply an elaborate hoax.
These innovations of the early 20th century – including electricity, electric light, telephony, TV, radio, central heating, cars, aircraft – all had far greater impact on society than digital technologies have had - up to this point.
To use our previous measure, both radio and television were adopted much faster – under 10 years to reach 50% of households - than personal computers or mobile phones; circa 15-17 years respectively.
Other much hyped technologies – smart watches, connected homes, 3D printers, wearable tech – are being adopted even more slowly.
Regardless, it's important to note that the technology itself is not becoming more disruptive – the majority of the poster children of digital disruption have been services built upon the existing web infrastructure – and because of this we confuse diversification with acceleration.
Yes, the impact of digital technology is expanding on just about every front - and will continue to do so slowly - but the occasional reality check is in order.
Digital technology is actually not changing society like never before, nor is the speed of technological change accelerating like never before.
Which is all a shame really, given we are facing a not too distant future of 10billion of us crammed onto a tiny planet without enough food or water.
Meaningful disruption – of the same scale and impact as electricity or the radio in past times – will have to be about infrastructure, hygiene, food production, environment and healthcare. Not Snapchat glasses or smart clothes pegs.
